Category: Market Analysis

NSE Market Analysis For Week Ended August 22nd

authordonne4real | August 22, 2008

Here is the spreadsheet analysis for the week ending today, Friday August 22nd. You can also view all the results released this week on the Weekly Reports page.

Special thanks to Meristem Securities, FSDH, UBA Capital, CSL Securities, and Afrinvest.

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JP Morgan’s Analysis of Nigerian Banks

authordonne4real | August 19, 2008

Here is JP Morgan’s Analysis of Nigerian Banks. I will add some comments and notes later.

JPM Nigerian Banks Research Report (83)

Update:
Here are my comments and summary of the article:

  1. Believes that stocks in the banking sector are expensive on both an absolute basis and relative to emerging market peers. The believe that they are overvaluated up to about 56%.
  2. Recommended an Overweight (BUY) position in GTB, Neutral (HOLD) on Zenith, Union Bank, and Oceanic, and Underweight (SELL) on Intercontinental, UBA, and First Bank.
  3. Expect a return in the range of 27% for GTB to negative 40% for First Bank.
  4. Believe that the banks are sufficiently capitalised to support strong EPS growth.
  5. The continued vulnerability of smaller banks may pose systemic risks to the Nigerian banking system.

Are negative on the Nigerian banks for the following reasons:

  1. Valuations appeared stretched.
  2. Capital raising has been used to fund growth while internal growth capability is low.
  3. Continued intensification of competition.
  4. The risk of sharp increase in non-performing loans has increased as private sector credit increased 98% in 2007.
  5. Earnings growth visiblity is low.
  6. Growth has moved ahead of the risk capabilities of both the banks and regulator.
  7. Growth opportunity in the retail market may take longer to realise than the market is presently expecting.
  8. The stock market has been driven by a hot-house effect, movinig ahead of fundamentals.
  9. Bank prices do not sufficiently reflect the difficulties imposed by a lack of infrastructure, high levels of systemic risk as well as general economic and political risk.

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Chart Analysis For The Week Ended August 15th

Here is the weekly market report for the week ended, Friday, August 15th. The information was compiled from the weekly spreadsheets from FSDH, UBA Capital Markets, CSL, and Meristem.

You can view all the results released this week on the Company Results page of this site. I will be updating every Friday.

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Stockbrokers’ Report For Week of August 15th

authordonne4real | August 18, 2008

Here are the stock reports from Zenith Securities, FSDH, CSL, Investor Delight, and Lead Capital for the week ended Friday, August 15th.

Zenith Securities’ stock picks for this are also attached. Their stock picks for this week are:
Oceanic Bank
Skye Bank
UBA
UBN
Zenith Bank
Nigerian Breweries
Ashaka Cement and
Lafarge Wapco

FSDH - Weekly Report - Aug 15th (21)
Investor Delight - Weekly Report - Aug 15th (10)
Lead Capital - Weekly Report - Aug 15th (7)
Meristem - Weekly Report - Aug 15th (15)
ZSL - Weekly Report - Aug 15th (6)
ZSL - Stock Picks - Aug 18th (12)

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Market Report for the Week Ended Friday, August 15th

authordonne4real | August 17, 2008

A turnover of 6.4 billion shares worth N47.94 billion in 60,803 deals was recorded this week, in contrast to a total of 3.25 billion shares valued at N43.71 billion exchanged last week in 72,486 deals. There were no transactions in the Federal Government Development Stocks, State Government Bonds and Industrial Loans/Preference Stocks sectors.

The Banking subsector was the most active during the week (measured by turnover volume), with 4.5 billion shares worth N37.4 billion exchanged by investors in 30,244 deals. Volume in the Banking subsector was largely driven by activity in the shares of Spring Bank Plc. Trading in the shares of the Bank accounted for 3.45 billion shares, representing 77.2% of the subsector’s turnover.

The Insurance subsector, boosted by activity in the shares of Investment & Allied Assurance Plc, followed on the week’s activity chart with a turnover of 1.42 billion shares valued at N1.7 billion in 8,088 deals. Last week, the Insurance subsector led on the activity chart and was followed by the Banking subsector.

Price Movement
The All-Share Index dropped by 4.4% to close on Friday at 47,517.87. The market capitalization of the 210 First -Tier equities closed lower at N9.7 trillion.
Twenty - Six (26) stocks appreciated in price during the week, higher than the seventeen (17) in the preceding week. Also, as in the preceding week, Chevron Oil Nigeria Plc led on the gainers’ table with a gain of N62.00 to close at N286.44 per share while Mobil Oil Nigeria Plc followed with N51.00 to close at N315.00 per share. Other price gainers in the Top 10 category include:
+ Julius Berger Nigeria Plc     - N9.27
+ BOC Gases Plc         - N6.36
+ The Okomu Oil Palm Plc     - N4.86
+ Guinness Nigeria Plc     - N4.52
+ Berger Paints Plc         - N2.75
+ Longman Nigeria Plc     - N2.60
+ Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals Plc     - N1.43
+ 7-Up Bottling Co. Plc     - N0.60

Eighty (80) stocks depreciated in price during the week, lower than the eighty-eight (88) in the preceding week. Total Nigeria Plc led on the price losers’ table, dropping by N34.29 to close at N206.21 per share while Oando Plc followed with a loss of N20.30 to close at N149.15 per share. Other price losers in the Top 10 category include:
- UACN Plc - N6.86
- Chemical & Allied Products Plc - N4.88
- Intercontinental Bank Plc     - N4.72
- Academy Press Plc         - N4.00
- Ashaka Cement Plc         - N3.99
- First Bank of Nigeria Plc     - N3.32
- Dangote Flour Mills Plc     - N3.00
- Lafarge WAPCO Plc         - N2.90

Five equity prices were adjusted for dividend and or bonus as recommended by the Board of Directors. Academy Press Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.06 per share and bonus of 1 for 2. Flour Mills Nigeria Plc was adjusted for dividend of N1.00 per share and bonus of 1 for 10. Nigerian Bag Manufacturing Co. Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.05 per share. Diamond Bank Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.56 per share and bonus of 1 for 10. Intercontinental WAPIC Insurance Plc was adjusted for dividend of N0.125 per share and bonus of 1 for 5.

New Listing
The 1,548,780,000 shares in favour of Capital Hotels Plc were admitted to the Daily Official List at a price of N6.50 per share on Thursday, August 14, 2008 by way of Introduction. The shares were listed in the Hotel & Tourism subsector. By this action, the number of listed companies and securities increased to 226 and 319, respectively.

Supplementary Listings
A total of 100,800,000 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Academy Press Plc following the bonus of 1 for 2. A total of 155,306,666 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Flour Mills Plc following the bonus of 1 for 10. A total of 1,315,931,191 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Diamond Bank Plc following the bonus of 1 for 10. A total of 843,634,000 shares were added to the shares outstanding in the name of Intercontinental WAPIC Insurance Plc the bonus of 1 for 5.

Special Sale
There was Special Sale on the floors of The Exchange on Thursday August 14, 2008 of 637,919,840 shares of Capital Hotels Plc by the Federal Government of Nigeria through the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). The shares would be allocated and sold in the six geo-political zones on specific Trading Floors of The Exchange on specified dates.

Change of Name and Sector Reclassification
The name of Royal Exchange Assurance (Nigeria) Plc was changed to Royal Exchange Assurance Plc following business restructuring. Also, the company was moved from the Insurance sector and listed in the “Other Financial Institutions” sector.

Technical Suspension
The Full Suspension on Spring Bank Plc was downgraded to Technical Suspension on Monday, August 11, 2008. The downgrade became imperative as the management of The Exchange is satisfied with the progress being made at resolving the issues that led to the imposition of the full suspension.

Company News
UNION HOMES SAVINGS & LOANS PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st March 2008 shows Turnover of N8.92 billion as against N8.4 billion in 2007. Profit after tax stood at N2 billion compared with N1.0 billion in 2007. The Directors are recommending a dividend of N0.10 per share and bonus of 1 for 4. The date of closure of register of members is August 25, 2008 while payment date is September 15, 2008.

ZENITH BANK PLC: Unaudited result for the year ended 30th June 2008 shows Gross Earnings of N158.3 billion, as against N94.9 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N41.04 billion compared with N18.8 billion in 2007.

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N43.1 billion, as against N40.8 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N12.84 billion compared with N11.5 billion in 2007. The Directors are recommending an interim dividend of N0.85 per share. The date of closure of register of members is August 29, 2008 while payment date is September 8, 2008.

NESTLE NIGERIA PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N22.9 billion, as against N20.21 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N3.3 billion compared with N3.1 billion in 2007.

TOTAL NIGERIA PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N85.85 billion, as against N66.4 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N2.225 billion compared with N1.4 billion in 2007.

AFRICAN PETROLEUM PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N80.75 billion, as against N48.82 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N3.9 billion compared with N2.15 billion in 2007.

CONOIL PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N75.1 billion, as against N32.83 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N2.65 billion compared with N866 million in 2007.

GLAXO SMITHKLINE CONSUMER PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N6.03 billion, as against N4.4 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N786.05 million compared with N334.75 million in 2007.

RED STAR EXPRESS PLC: Unaudited result for the first quarter ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N967.5 million, as against N745.6 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N99.22 million compared with N65.33 million in 2007.

MAY & BAKER NIGERIA PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N2.3 billion, as against N1.6 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N96.2 million compared with N89.1 million in 2007.

CONTINENTAL REINSURANCE PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Gross Premium of N2.6 billion, as against N1.12 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N927.13 million compared with N498.74 million in 2007.

REGENCY ALLIANCE INSURANCE PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Gross Premium of N821.25 million, as against N610.43 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N176.43 million compared with N90.73 million in 2007.

CUSTODIAN & ALLIED INSURANCE PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Gross Premium of N2.01 billion, as against N1.31 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N648.61 million compared with N435.83 million in 2007.

EQUITY ASSURANCE PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Gross Premium of N1.24 billion, as against N1.05 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N504.25 million compared with N188.71 million in 2007.

ALUMINIUM EXTRUSION INDUSTRIES PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N605.7 million, as against N549.8 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N29.32 million compared with N18.4 million in 2007.

THOMAS WYATT NIGERIA PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st March 2008 shows Turnover of N162.75 million as against N121.85 million in 2007. Profit after tax stood at N2.02 million compared with profit after tax and extra-ordinary income of N0.273 million in 2007. The Directors are recommending a bonus of 1 for 10. The date of closure of register of members is September 8, 2008.

FTN COCOA PROCESSORS PLC: Audited result for the 4 months ended 30th April 2008 shows Turnover of N324.6 million, as against N267.1 million during the year ended December 31, 2007. Profit before tax stood at N143.2 million compared with profit after tax and extra-ordinary items of N142.8 million during the year ended December 31, 2007.

STARCOMMS PLC: Unaudited result for the half year ended 30th June 2008 shows Turnover of N17.4 billion, as against N8.7 billion in the comparable period of 2007. Loss after tax stood at N1.01 billion compared with N381 million in 2007.

EVANS MEDICAL PLC: Audited result for the year ended 31st December 2007 shows Turnover of N3.15 billion as against N2.91 billion in 2006. Loss after tax stood at N317.02 million compared with profit after tax of N132.2 million in 2006. The date of closure of register of members is September 8, 2008.

EVANS MEDICAL PLC: Unaudited result for the first quarter ended 31st March 2008 shows Turnover of N1.2 billion, as against N746.9 million in the comparable period of 2007. Profit after tax stood at N111.0 million compared with loss after tax of N21.0 million in 2007.

NIGERIAN INTERNATIONAL DEBT FUND: Audited result for the year ended 31st December 2007 shows Total investment Income of N180.4 million as against N406.6 million in 2006. The Net loss stood at N85.3 million compared with net profit of N228.93 million in 2006.

Report on the OTC Market for FGN Bonds
A turnover of 147.44 million units worth N144.7 billion in 1,339 deals was recorded this week, in contrast to a total of 191 million units valued at N189.6 billion exchanged in 1650 deals during the week ended August 7, 2008. The most active bond (measured by turnover volume) was the 5th FGN Bond 2018 Series 2 with a traded volume of 21.82 million units valued at N20.33 billion in 153 deals.

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Analysis of UBA, Diamond Bank, Conoil, Oando, and UAC Properties Results

authordonne4real | August 15, 2008

Here are the analysis of the results of UBA, Diamond Bank, Conoil, Oando, and UAC Properties.

FSDH Analysis of UBA’s Q3′ 2008 Results:

  1. Improvements in the quality of the bank’s assets.
  2. Non-performing loans decreased slightly to N14.66bn.
  3. The non-performing loan to gross loan margin decreased from 12.6% to 4.37%.
  4. Projects PAT of N52.66bn, N78.99bn, N114.54bn, and N160.36bn for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively.
  5. Estimate a fair value of N56.23 for the stock price. So the stock is a rated a BUY.

ZSL Analysis of Oando’s Q2 ‘08 Results

  1. PAT increased 59%.
  2. 161.94% growth in earnings per share.
  3. Expects that the deregulation of the gas industry will provide an opportunity for the company to purchase part of the unbundled Nigerian Gas Company.
  4. The $500m in rigs (started in 2007) to develop a stong offering in the upstream services sector is expected to impact the company’s bottom line in the medium to long term.
  5. Oando’s marketing unit, Oando Marketing is expected to be quoted on the NSE.
  6. The stock is valued at N176.98 in the near term and N222.99 in the long-term.
  7. Recommendation of HOLD.

Meristem has a BUY recommendation for Diamond Bank.
Meristem has a BUY recommendation for Conoil.
Meristem has a HOLD recommednation for UAC Properties.

FSDH - UBA Q3 Analysis (7)
Meristem - Conoil Q2 ‘08 Analysis (5)
Meristem - Diamond Bank ‘08 Results Analysis (6)
Meristem - UAC PDC Equity Report (6)
ZSL - Oando Q2 ‘08 Analysis (4)

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Afrinvest’s Recommended Stocks

authordonne4real | August 14, 2008

Here is a nice article on Business Day’s website on stocks to consider during the bear run in the NSE. It is based on a study by Afrinvest WA using projected gross earning, profit after tax, earning per share dividend per share, return on equity, price earning ratio and dividend yield. Their top stocks are Oceanic Bank, Bank PHB, Afribank, Dangote Sugar and International Engergy.

Oceanic Bank
As at the close of trading August, 2008, Oceanic Bank finished at N21.27 per share. This compared with N 24.54 as at the end June 27, 2008. The bank’s gross earning during the 2007 first year was N74. 5 billion and is expected to rise to N138.24 billion by the end of 2008 profit after tax was N17.55 billion and is expected to grow to N34.1 billion. Each investor earned N1.50 and dividend of N1.02 both of which are expected to rise to N1.76 and N1.21 respectively. Price earning ratio and is currently 20.22 times projected to drop to 13.44 times. The stock’s price is expected to close higher at N38.00 per share by the end of the year.

Bank PHB
Price at N20.79 per share August 11, Bank PHB is expected to appreciate to N38.0 per share. The forecast based on its current and expected performance indicators. The bank’s gross earning as at the close of business in the 2007 first half was N36.16 billion which is expected to grow to N75.4 billion, at the end of the 2008. Profit after tax which was N7.75 billion may grow to N28.7 billion by the end of the second half. Earning per share is expected to increase to N1.37 from N1.20 while dividend per share may hit 80 kobo from 70 kobo. Return on equity is projected to decline from 21.4 percent to 16.5 percent.

International Energy
As at the close of trading August 8, International Energy finished at N3.24 per share, a 69.6 percent increase compared to N1.91 per share June 27, 2008. And the stock may rise to N7.50 if current market sentiment is sustained. The company’s gross earning for 2007 first half is N2.68 billion to increase to N4.7 billion or 76.2 percent by the year end . Profit after tax is expected to rise by 99.3 percent to N1.5 billion from N0.752billon. Earning per share would grow by 75.0 percent to 28 kobo from 16 kobo. Dividend per share by the end of 2008 would be 18 kobo, up from 9kobo while return on investment is projected to rise by 12.9 percent. The price earning ratio would improve from 29.9 times to 13.1 times. Dividend yield is expected to grow by 4.3 percent from 4.7 percent in 2007.

Dangote Sugar
Dangote Sugar Refinery traded at N27.20 per share August 11, compared with N24.80 June 27, 2008. In the light of some recent performance indicators, Dangote could rise to N40 by the end of the year.
The company’s gross earning for 2007 first half was N80.64 billion and is expecte4d to climb by 4.5 percent to N84.3 billion by the end of December 2008. Profit after tax is to leap by 26.6 percent to N27.2 billion from N21.4 billion in 2007 while earning per share which was N2.15 would rise by 26.5 percent to N2.72 billion. Dividend per share is expected to be N2.00 from N1.7. Return on investment is expected to grow by 79.7 percent. The price earning ratio which was 18.1 times in 2007 should drop to 11.7 times.

Afribank
As at the close of business on Monday, Afribank closed at N25.00 per share, as against N22.60 in June. The stock is forecast to rise to N32.00 per share. Afribank is expected to grow gross earning by 72 .2 percent from N27,5 billion in the 2007 first half to N 47.4 billion .Profit after tax is to rise by 77.1 percent from N5.2 billion to N9.2 billion. Earning per share is to drop by 12 percent from N1.02 to N0.89. Dividend would grow from 30 kobo to 50 kobo. Return on investment is to decline by 5.8 percent while price earning ratio would rise from 11.4 times to 27.0 times.

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Weekly Stock Report From Select Stockbrokers

authordonne4real | August 4, 2008

Here are the stock reports from FSDH, BGL Securities, and Lead Capital:

FSDH - Weekly Report - August1 (6)
Lead Capital - Weekly Report - August1 (6)
BGL - Weekly Report - August1 (8)

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Analyst reports on Nigerian Breweries, UNILEVER, and NAHCO.

authordonne4real | July 30, 2008

Below is are summaries of the reports on Nigerian Breweries, Unilever and NAHCO. Lead Capital’s Q2 Economic Report is also available.
FSDH’s Research Report on Nigerian Breweries
1. A projected turnover of N145.27bn with a growth of 30%
2. Earnings Per Share projection of N3.26
3. Profit After Tax projection of N24.63bn
4. The stock is a BUY
FSDH-Nigerian Breweries Q2 Analysis (3)

FSDH’s Research Report on UNILEVER Nigeria PLC
1. Turnover projection of N40.05bn
2. PAT projection of N3.69bn
3. Divident Per Share projection of N0.83
4. The stock is valued at N25.05
5. The stock is a BUY
FSDH-Unilever Q2 Analysis (2)

Meristem’s Analysis of NAHCO
1. Competitive pressures are likely to erode the company’s monopoly status as current reforms are luring ground handling companies into the country
2. Believes that NAHCO will be negatively impacted by unexpected negative government regulations
3. Post-privatization growth rate of about 9% has been unimpressive
4. Believes the stock is overvalued by as much as 18%
5. The stock is a SELL
Meristem - NAHCO Analysis (Abridged) (25)

Lead Capital - Q2 Economic Report (4)

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Current State of The NSE - Same as July 2007

authordonne4real | July 29, 2008

This image provides a good description of the current state of the stock market. The stock market is around the same spot as it was last year. The stock market index in July 2007 was around 52000. It went on a long rising streak to as much as 66000 points. But the fall has been continuous and drastic - now around 52500.

IMO, I dont think this is such a big deal. It shows that the market is now maturing and that some market correction took place.

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Weekly Market Reports From The Stockbrokers

authordonne4real | July 28, 2008

Here are the weekly market reports for the week ended Friday, July 25th prepared by FSDH, Zenith Securities, and Lead Capital.

The stock picks for the week from Zenith Securities and Lead Capital are also below.

FSDH-WeeklyReport-July25 (14)
ZSL - WeeklyReport-July 25 (10)
LeadCapital-WeeklyReport-July25 (14)
LeadCapital-StockPicks-July28 (17)
ZSL-StockPicks-July28 (9)

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Zenith’s Outlook for 2nd half of ‘08

authordonne4real | July 24, 2008

Zenith Bank recently released their macro-economic outlook for the 2nd half of 2008. Here are the highlights:

  1. Slower activity in the first half of 2008 compared to a strong 2007.
  2. There is a potential for improvement in the second half of the year.
  3. The growth in price of crude oil is expected to slow
  4. A long term trend of strong growth in consumer spending is expected to slowed due to inflationary presssures.
  5. Inflationary pressures expected in this half
  6. Overweight position is Nigerian equities
  7. Increased government spending expected
  8. Recommend investors diversify

You can read the report here: Zenith - Macroeconomic Outlook For Nigeria H2 (9)

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