Data Dump

authordonne4real | July 3, 2008

You will have to forgive me. But I will have to do a data dump. There are so many documents that I have read and planned to write summaries and make comments on to post but I havent been chanced. So I am posting all the documents for your consumption.

Economic Intelligence Unit - World Investment Prospect 2011 (11)

UBA Global Markets - Market Review (29)

Forte Quarterly Economic Report - Jan - Mar 08 (14)

Forte - Analysis of Oceanic Bank (181)

FORTE WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW June 27th 2008 (90)

FSDH - R.T. Briscoe Q1 Results (54)

CBN 1st Qtr Economic Report (25)

Private Placement in Nigeria (219)

The Nigerian FDI challenge (21)

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CBN First Quarter Economic Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently released the Q1 report. You can download it here.

CBN 1st Qtr Economic Report (25)

I was about to summarize it but it seems that Business Day Online did a good job. Here are excerpts of their report.
For instance, in the financial sector, the value of money market assets increased, following largely the rise in bankers’ acceptances. Data indicated growth in monetary aggregates. Broad money supply (M2) and narrow money supply (M1) rose by 34.8 and 40.2 percent to N6.4trillion and N3.5trilion respectively, compared with the increase of 7.9 and 11.9 percent in the preceding quarter. The rise in M2 was attributed to the increase in foreign assets (net), domestic credit and other assets (net) of the banking system. Over the level at end-December 2007, M2 grew by 34.8 percent, compared with the indicative benchmark of 22.9 percent for fiscal 2008.

At N2.9trillion, aggregate banking system credit (net) to the domestic economy rose by 35.8 percent in the first quarter of 2008, compared with the increase of 52.4 percent in the preceding quarter.

The development reflected the increase in claims on the private sector during the period.

Banking system’s credit (net) to the Federal Government declined by 5 percent to N3.05trillion, compared with the decline of 5.6 percent in the preceding quarter.

The fall in the review quarter was attributed to the decline in Central Bank of Nigeria CBN claims on the Federal Government.

Banking system’s credit to the private sector rose by 18.1 percent to N5.9trillion, compared with the increase of 21.5 percent in the preceding quarter. The rise reflected wholly the 20.8 percent increase in deposit money banks’ (DMBs) claims on the private sector

At N8.1billion, foreign assets (net) of the banking system rose by 10.4 percent, compared with the increase of 5.9 percent in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the 10.3 and 11.3 percent increase in the CBN and DMBs’ holdings, respectively.

Quasi money rose by 28.6 percent to N2.8trillion, compared with the increase of 3.7 percent in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the increase in all the components namely; time, savings and foreign currency deposits of the DMBs during the quarter. Other assets (net) of the banking system rose by 3percent to N4.5 trillion, in contrast to the decline of 20.3 percent in the preceding quarter. The rise reflected largely the increase in unclassified assets of the DMBs during the quarter.

At N891.8 billion, currency in circulation fell by 7.2 percent in March, 2008 from the level in December 2007. The fall was traceable largely to the decline of 7.7 percent in currency outside the banking system during the period.

Total deposits at the CBN amounted to N4.8 trillion, indicating an increase of 8.9 percent over the level in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to the 9 and 16.4 percent rise in both the Federal Government and deposit money banks’ (DMBs) deposits, respectively.

Also, the banking sector was not left out. Available data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates in the first quarter of 2008. With the exception of the average savings deposits and seven-day savings rates which fell by 0.26 and 0.16 percentage points to 2.97 and 5.38 percent, respectively, all other rates on deposits of various maturities rose from a range of 7.75 – 9.90 percent in the preceding quarter to 9.48 – 10.71 percent.

Also, the average prime and maximum lending rates fell by 0.44 and 0.07 percentage points to 16.05 and 18.17 percent, respectively. Consequently, the spread between the weighted average deposit and maximum lending rates widened from 15.01 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 15.20 percentage points. On the other hand, the margin between the average savings deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed from 10.77 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 10.31 percentage points. The increase in interest rates during the review quarter was attributed to the upward review of the MPR in December, 2007.

At the inter-bank call segment, the weighted average rate, which was 8.25 in the preceding quarter, rose to 10.30 percent, reflecting the liquidity squeeze in the inter-bank funds market.

What of the money market? With tight liquidity conditions in the money market, following the upward review of the MPR from 9.0 to 9.5 percent in December, 2007, deposit money banks (DMBs) accessed the CBN lending facility more frequently to square up short-term positions. Consequently, a cumulative sum of N8.6trillion was granted to DMBs on overnight basis in the review period, compared with N523.91 billion in the preceding quarter.

The value of money market assets outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2008 increased by 18.7 percent to N2.6trillion, compared with the increase of 5.8 percent in the preceding quarter.

Available data indicated that total assets/liabilities of the DMBs amounted to N13.3trillion, representing an increase of 32.5 percent over the level in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed largely to the rise in claims on the private sector.

Funds, which were sourced mainly from demand deposit, time, savings and foreign currency deposits, were used mainly for acquisition of unclassified assets and extension of credit to the private sector.

At N7.2trillion, credit to the domestic economy rose by 21.0 percent over the level in the preceding quarter. The increase in credit during the quarter was attributed largely to the 21.8 percent rise in claims on Federal Government (net) during the period.

Central Bank’s credit to the DMBs fell by 2.9 percent to N29.0 billion in the review quarter.

Total specified liquid assets of the DMBs stood at N3.8trillion, representing 49.6 percent of their total current liabilities. At that level, the liquidity ratio rose by 4.9 percentage points over the preceding quarter’s level. This level of specified liquid assets was 9.6 percentage points above the stipulated minimum ratio of 40 percent for fiscal 2008. The loans-to-deposit ratio fell by 9.4 percentage points below the level in the preceding quarter, and was 6.1 percentage points below the prescribed minimum target of 80.0 per cent.

Total federally-collected revenue during the first quarter of 2008 stood at N1.8trillion, representing an increase of 25.2 and 11.2 percent over the proportionate budget estimate and the preceding quarter’s level, respectively. At N1.5trillion, oil receipts which constituted 83.3 percent of the total, increased by 33.2 and 23.1 percent over the budget estimate and the level in the preceding quarter, respectively. The rise in oil receipts relative to the budget estimate was attributed to the persistent rise in oil prices at the international oil market during the review period. However, non-oil receipts, at N315.06 billion or 16.7 percent of the total, were lower than the receipts in the preceding quarter and the budget estimate by 25.0 and 3.8 percent, respectively. The decline in non-oil receipts during the period was attributed largely to the fall in independent revenue of the Federal Government and Companies Income Tax (CIT).

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Observations on NSE

In this article, the analysts at UBA Global Markets review the Nigerian equity market with a view to identifying the nature, causes and effects of recent liquidity squeeze in the market.

Here are the main points and summary:

1. The Nigerian equity market has recorded strong growth in key parameters over the last few years. The performance was particularly more over the last two years due, mainly, to several economic and financial market reforms. The reforms led to an increase in investor confidence, thus, driving the influx of local and foreign capital to the equity capital market.

2. Fitch assigns Nigeria a BB rating. In the latest release of its sovereign ratings, Fitch has reinforced the outlook of the currency as stable by raising Nigeria’s long term Naira issuer default rating to BB, from BB– awarded last year.

3. Improved key macroeconomic indicators… Nigeria’s external reserves rose steadily by 10.9% to N60.1bn in June 2008, while inflation rate rose to 9.7% in May 2008 due to perceived increase in aggregate market liquidity. Nigeria’s GDP was estimated to have grown by 6.6% in Q2, 08. Aggregate growth in output is driven by the non-oil sector, which grew by 9.8% in 2007. Economists say the real GDP should remain robust at over six percent /year between 2009 and 2012.

4. As the CBN moves to check growth in liquidity. On June 2, 2008, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced an increase in local benchmark rate, Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 25 basis points to 10.25%. It also raised the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for commercial banks by 100 basis points to 4%. The strategy was to tighten overall capacity of the banks to create credit and put aggregate money supply at acceptable levels.

5. New listings continue to drive equity market activity. In 2008, the equity market has performed below stakeholders’ expectation.  Much of the performance/activity recorded since the turn of the year has come from newly listed issues. The surge in aggregate market liquidity (as measured by turnover volume) resulted from trading in newly listed insurance stocks with large number of shares in issue. Notable amongst them are Investment & Allied Assurance (28bn shares), Universal Insurance (16.5bn shares) and Goldlink Insurance (9.1bn shares).

6. As a result of the speculative positioning that pervaded the market early in the year, we saw the market appreciate at a fast and unsustainable pace. Speculators that were quick to enter the equity market were just as quick to exit and take their short term profits. Hence, the sell off that was experienced at the early stages of the market decline could be said to have resulted from continuous profit taking by speculators, who were exiting their positions. While we note the impact of this sell off on the market, it ordinarily should not hold any significance to the long term investor. If not for anything, it should serve as another opportunity to purchase stocks that are still fundamentally viable at lower prices.

7. In our view, the experience of the recent downturn in the market comes with a vital lesson and highlights the need for the emergence of a quote driven market as against the existing order driven market. It also makes a strong case for investors to place greater emphasis on portfolio diversification in non-correlated or low-correlated asset classes.

UBA Global Markets - Market Review (29)

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Results for Longman, Prestige Assurance, and Nigerian German Chemicals

Results for Longman, Prestige Assurance, and Nigerian German Chemicals:

LONGMAN NIGERIA PLC
YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 2007

2007 2006
TURNOVER N2.314b N1.743b
PBT N458.815m N283.561m
TAX (N182.022m) (N79.810m)
PAT N276.793m N203.751m

PROPOSED DIVIDEND/SHARE 100KOBO
CLOSURE DATE JULY 7, 2008
PAYMENT DATE JULY 28, 2008


PRESTIGE ASSURANCE PLC
AUDITED RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31ST DECEMBER 2007

2007 2006
GROSS PREMIUM INCOME N2.260b N1.539b
PBT N901.569m N600.484m
TAX (N263.485m) (N193.068m)
PAT N638.084m N497.416m

PPROPOSED DIVIDEND 20 KOBO
PROPOSED BONUS 1 FOR 4
CLOSURE OF REGISTER 8TH TO 11TH JULY 2008
PAYMENT DATE 4TH AUGUST 2008
AGM:WILL BE HELD AT MICHAEL ANGELO SUITE, VICTORIA CROWN PLAZA HOTEL, 292G, AJOSE ADEOGUN STREET VICTORIA ISLAND LAGOS ON THURSDAY 31ST JULY 2008 AT 12.00 NOON.

NIGERIAN GERMAN CHEMICALS PLC
UNAUDITED RESULT FOR 1ST QUARTER ENDED 31-03-2008

2008 2007
TURNOVER N901.951m N710.508m
PBT N86.340m N81.710m
TAX N25.902m N24.513m
PAT N60.438m N57.197m

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More Public Offerings

Proshare NG is reporting that the NSE council will be meeting today and on Friday to consider the following applications:

- Costain WA Plc – supplementary offering
- Skye Bank – supplementary offering
- Lucky Fibres Plc – Public offering
- Crusader Insurance Plc – Public offering
- Sovereign Trust Ins. Plc – Merger
- Staco Insurance - Public/rights offering
- Starcoms – Introductory listing
- Union Homes REIT – Introductory listing
- Sterling Bank – Reconstruction
- Transnationwide Express – Public/rights offering
- West African Glass Ind – Placing/rights
- Multiverse Plc – Introductory listing

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